Entering the third year of the epidemic!
In the past two years, due to the epidemic, the total number of domestic tourism trips is also about 50% of 2019. According to the National Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the total number of domestic tourism trips in 2019 is to reach 6 billion trips and tourism revenue of about $6 trillion. Without the impact of the epidemic, this figure should exceed 7 billion trips and 7 trillion by 2022. However, the current market demand is only half of what it was in 2019, but the supply is at its peak after 2019. The current state of the market, where supply exceeds demand, is causing more hotels to go out of business, go bankrupt, close, or force upgrades.
Two years stolen by the epidemic
According to data of different statistical calibers, nearly 100,000 domestic accommodation units have gone bankrupt and closed down in the past two years, mostly single units and small room volume products, which are uncompetitive and gradually go to extinction when the market has problems. Another data is that in the past two years, the number of domestic hotel chains is growing at a rate of about 10,000 per year, of which the three giants Jinjiang, Huazhu and Shougang occupy half.
On the one hand, the total supply is decreasing, on the other hand, the number of hotel chains is growing, which is the inevitable market adjustment, which will also inevitably affect the growth of the domestic hotel chain rate. In the past two years, the hotel industry in the context of the epidemic has been very difficult indeed, with a reduction in the number of guests and a decrease in consumer income being the two core factors affecting the growth of hotel tourism performance. Except for some special cities and regions, the tourism market in most areas is basically the result of stopping the cut. This will also inevitably cause the hotel industry to reshuffle and re-enter the competition of the inner volume.
The domestic hotel industry after more than two decades of development, in fact, just as the high-speed development of the machine, there is bound to be the process of going askew, there is the production of substandard products. The hotel industry is also the same, the rapid growth of the hotel has created a large supply, so much so that friends often joke that walking in the domestic street what is the most? Hotels, pharmacies, massage parlors. This is a hotel status quo can not be ignored, we in the real estate carriage and high-speed growth of the economy driven by countless hotels opened up, investors from all walks of life like the wind into the industry, but because of the unregulated and non-professional development, the hotel industry is extremely uneven development. In the hundreds of thousands of domestic hotel stock, 80% of the economy and small and medium-sized accommodation units, the ability to resist risk is extremely low. Development to this stage, the hotel industry chain less than 30%, far below the proportion of 70% in Europe and the United States, the next is the need to gradually optimize the process of this hotel.
The hotel industry is accelerating the reshuffle
The reshuffling of the hotel industry is accelerating, and the current chain of hundreds of thousands of hotels is the main issue in the development of the hotel industry in the past few years. The process of chainization is not only new, but also in the supply-side reform of the stock. For example, if there are 500,000 hotels, of which 100,000 are chain hotels, then the chain rate of 20%, before the epidemic is 500,000 in growth, 100,000 are also growing, but the chain of growth is slow. Into the present, 500,000 reduced by 100,000, leaving 400,000, even if the chain hotel or 100,000, the chain rate growth of 25%, which also predicts that for every additional chain hotel, there will be at least 3 single towards extinction.
The epidemic has accelerated the reshuffling of the hotel industry, with uncompetitive accommodation products being rapidly eliminated. With competition from limited guest sources, stock hotels and new hotels must consider adapting to the consumer appeal of the current guest base, thereby maximizing the diversion of the only guest sources available. When a city has too many hotels and the guest base cannot meet the demand for these hotel stays, there will be an involution of the hotel industry. It also indicates that the clientele has more choices, in this status quo, the city's hotels are bound to have a part of the closure of bankruptcy, the rest need to consider upgrading to cater to a limited source of customers, may be the best and simplest choice of chain.
How much longer do we need to stay up
As the epidemic enters its third year, the industry's patience seems to have reached a tipping point; no industry can last three years in a loss-making state. As we enter the second half of 2021, the epidemic continues to appear everywhere, affecting not only the hospitality and tourism industries, but also the related upstream and downstream industrial chains. The consequences of severe economic damage are increased unemployment and people with no money on hand to travel. The epidemic is causing a sharp decline in cross-province travel, and a city that relies on local clientele to support itself is not far from death.
The current development of the epidemic should be a normalized progress, and it is clear from all sides that the epidemic will not die out in the short term, and coexistence with humans is definitely a normalized existence. At present, China should be the only country to implement the dynamic zero policy of the epidemic, a policy where there is an epidemic I go to put out the fire in an emergency. The results of this approach are good, and the country is currently the safest region. But everything has its advantages and disadvantages, and with the world "lying flat" with the epidemic, it is costly to keep the country "alone".
The virus is constantly mutating, and the propagation seems to be gradually strengthening, a country is needed with foreign exchanges, the most basic is the economic exchange, which involves employment and livelihood. Under this strict system, the day of recovery of the domestic hotel tourism industry is still very far away, praying for the recovery of the upstream and downstream workers and related industrial chain still have to wait in torment, but how long you need to wait is not yet known.
So should we not reflect on whether our approach to epidemic prevention can be more scientific and feasible to keep epidemic prevention and economic development in tandem. Tourism is a labor-intensive industry that accounts for a large percentage of the national economy each year. Nowadays, as soon as a local confirmed case appears in a place, the tourism industry's hotel revenue drops vertically into the freezing point, then continues to zero out and then slowly climbs, and then enters recovery, and so on. Can we advocate "blind" epidemic prevention, some areas have individual outbreaks, can be handled without large-scale notification, within a controlled range, to avoid the public's panic and thus affect the recovery of tourism.
As we enter the third year of the epidemic's development, I believe that the tolerance of all industries and practitioners has reached a limit. The hotel industry is the same, when so many hotels in the absence of sources of customers, there will certainly be a part of continue to enter the ranks of bankruptcy, the supply-side revolution continues, the winners and losers accelerated, only rely on the core resources of the hotel to survive. In the camp of the hotel to find a way to live, the new construction can be slow, part-time jobs to keep their rice bowls. A few days ago a friend asked me, this year can still invest in new hotels, I said wait! # hotel investment # save the tourism industry #