It's collapsing! Dan Bin liquidated his position

The author of "The Rose of Time" and private equity magnate Dan Bin couldn't help himself, hundreds of his products have been liquidated, and I have also made a confirmed response on Snowball.

It's collapsing! Dan Bin liquidated his position

The matter originated from another article "Private equity big brother Dan Bin suspected short position, hundreds of products net value almost zero fluctuations! Many large private equity voice bearish", the author found: since March, the net value of the products publicly available in the Eastern Harbor almost 0 fluctuations, both to avoid the big drop, but also did not eat the rebound.

For example, the representative products Marathon 1 and Marathon 2, which have been established for 6 years, have seen net value changes of -0.42% to 0.67% and -0.47% to 0.61% in the past three weeks, while the net value of Lux Hanjing, which has been established for 7 years, has changed by only -0.07% to -0.21%, and most other products have done the same, with almost no fluctuations in net value for three consecutive weeks.

But March was the main down wave of A-shares, other private equity net value fell a lot, there are many fell below the warning line and passive position reduction.

Eastern Harbor has managed more than 100 products with a scale of nearly 20 billion, but in February this year there were more than 50 products whose net value fell below the warning line of 0.8, and 6 others fell below 0.7 and were forced to liquidate, which may be the root cause of Dan Bin's full liquidation.

After all, Dan Bin can carry fluctuations, but investors may not be able to carry: for the fund company, the management scale is the top priority, management fees can be charged less, but must avoid the occurrence of large-scale redemptions, otherwise the company's survival will be a problem.

In fact, recently the pressure on the head of private equity is very high, such as Jinglin Investment, China Europe Rui Bo, Freshwater Spring have held communication meetings with investors, Shiva Asset's big gold chain is a frequent article on Snowball, clarifying their investment philosophy and future expectations, the bottom of the message is almost a comedy show, such as "fearless volatility" - "trapped, can not move", "risk aversion" - "bottom cut, risk out", almost made my head laugh off.


I find that many people have inexplicable confidence in the stock market, thinking that it's okay to go down, it will always come back. From a macro perspective, there's nothing wrong with this thinking, but how long does this "always" take? How long will it take for your position? What will the world be like in the future? I think no one knows the answer.

For example, yesterday, Putin announced that all gas exports from Russia will be settled in rubles, which makes Europe completely dumbfounded.

Europe has only two options: give up Russian gas completely or buy it with rubles.

Giving up is certainly not possible, at least not now, but where to get rubles? Europe also has only two options.

1. According to the official exchange rate of Russia to exchange for the euro, a fool knows that this must be a blood loss, because the ruble's real exchange rate is only half the official rate.

2. exchange goods, but this is in conflict with the sanctions: planes, ships, ports are all banned, how can both sides do trade?

Putin's move is also a model: after all, the currency is just a credit note, no credit is even worse than scrap paper, resources, gold and food is hard currency. The United States is also bound to the dollar and oil, to find the credit anchor, otherwise the two years of the Federal Reserve to put the water, the dollar has become a butt wipe paper.

The United States has the resources, food and guns, thus constructing the dollar hegemony, Russia also has the resources, food and guns, so there is no problem in constructing the ruble hegemony of its own commodity trade.

And Putin is even more desperate: didn't you kick me out of the swift system? All right, all foreign debts are repaid in rubles, you do not accept is your default, or take overseas frozen assets to repay, anyway, I can not get back, just to you to offset the debt.

Now Europe is completely dumbfounded, domestic energy prices are rocketing, like natural gas, Russia's export price is only 0.3 euros/m³, but Europe's market price is now 3.5 euros/m³, a 10-fold increase!

In the past two days, the problem in Europe has become apparent: many countries have broken out the farmers and truckers protests, mainly the price of diesel, fertilizer, feed, etc. too fierce, all can not stand. What should the government do? Continue to print money, to farmers and ordinary residents to issue energy subsidies, as for the interest rate increase? What the hell!

By the way, NATO just had a meeting and asked member countries to spend no less than 2% of GDP on military spending and to increase military deployment in Eastern Europe ......

Energy prices, the devaluation of the euro, the price of agricultural products, raise military spending, light pull not eat, a good man can not help but three bubble thin, the good days of the people of Europe, still in the back of na!

I think the butterfly effect of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is slowly emerging, I am more pessimistic about the future of Europe, and even the occurrence of some unexpected things, is not yet known: the EU, NATO, is really so unbreakable? Why does the UK want to leave the EU? Germany is really willing to be forever pressed by the United States?

As for the A-share, don't find yourself unhappy, last night the national football team can still 1: 1 draw with Saudi Arabia, A-share is the world looking for dad (down), no matter which place something happens, are first down for respect, and even take the initiative to help the Russian stock market to release the risk, yesterday moex index can be up 4 % Yo ~

Nikkei 8 consecutive positive, India, Indonesia's stock market courageous record high, so much risk they can eat? A group of big fools, when the stock market crash will come all have to die! [Tears]

Forget it, after all, investment is not the whole of life, the stock up and down, are not as warm as the company of family, the food and drink, wish you a good weekend!