On March 25, according to the market trend chart, recently, the offshore RMB exchange rate is continuing to rise, counting from March 24, as of March 25, 1056 hours, 2 trading days, the offshore RMB exchange rate rose 143 points in total, at 6.3716.
However, in the first few days, the offshore RMB exchange rate continued to fall, and in five trading days from March 17 to March 23, the offshore RMB exchange rate fell by a cumulative 272 points. Recently, the offshore yuan exchange rate "turned up", what is this because?
Recently, the offshore yuan exchange rate continued to rise, I think, on the surface, mainly because the dollar index "up". At the same time, today, it also "turned down", so that the pressure on the offshore yuan exchange rate down to reduce, so that the offshore yuan exchange rate "turned up".
According to the chart, recently, the dollar index has repeatedly hit the resistance level of 98.900, but, in the end, all "no success". At the same time, today, the dollar index also "low opening", a small decline, as of today (11:13), the dollar index at 98.512, has fallen 284 points.
In this regard, some people may wonder, yesterday, the United States announced the March manufacturing, services purchasing managers index are very "strong", how the dollar index in today "turned down"?
The data show that the U.S. March Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value of 58.5, the expected value of 56.3, the previous value of 57.3. From the data, in March, the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index not only "better than" market expectations, but also above the 50 waning line, which indicates that the U.S. manufacturing industry is still in expansion.
Also in March, the U.S. service sector was in expansion. Data show that the preliminary value of the U.S. Markit services PMI in March was 58.9, compared with the expected value of 56 and the previous value of 56.5.
In March, although the U.S. manufacturing and service sectors are still expanding, but, compared with February, there have been signs of a "slowdown".
The occurrence of this phenomenon, in my opinion, is still essentially the result of global hyperinflationary factors. In addition, the Fed's next round of interest rate hikes in May, nearly 2 months from now.
That is, the high inflation in March and April may lead to economic slowdown in Europe and the United States, or recession, that is, the dollar index in recent days "up not", as well as in today's "turn down" is very likely to be this pessimism in action.
The reason for this was the announcement that Russia made two decisions on February 28, as well as on March 23, which led to a significant increase in the value of the ruble. on February 28, the Russian Central Bank announced a 20% interest rate increase. on March 23, Russia announced to European countries that gas imports into Russia would need to be settled in rubles.
These two effective decisions by Russia have led to a significant appreciation of the ruble, in contrast to the euro, which has been depreciating relative to the ruble. Recently, the euro is continuing to depreciate relative to the ruble, which will certainly make production costs rise in Europe and the United States, eventually forcing global inflation to continue to climb.
According to the chart, March 8 - March 25 at 14:22, 13 trading days, the exchange rate of the euro against the ruble fell by a total of 391,359 points, that is, the ruble appreciated by 25.93% relative to the euro.
On the contrary, in our country, recently, although the RMB is also depreciating relative to the ruble, but the depreciation is not as strong as the euro, so the future, China's inflation problem is bound to be less serious than in Europe and the United States, which again reflects the potential of our economic growth to come, so recently, the offshore RMB exchange rate relative to the dollar began to rise again.
According to the chart, from March 8 to March 25 at 14:22, 13 trading days, the ruble rose 105 points in total against the yuan, i.e. the ruble appreciated by 20.15% relative to the yuan.
Currently, in addition to the pessimistic sentiment that inflation continues to climb in Europe and the U.S. making the offshore RMB exchange rate rise, the rising optimism about the trade outlook between China and the U.S. is also a factor contributing to the rise in the offshore RMB exchange rate.
On March 23, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative reportedly issued a statement announcing a new exemption from tariffs on 352 items of imports from China that will apply to goods imported from China between October 12, 2021 and December 31, 2022.
The U.S. re-exemption of tariffs on 352 items of goods imported from China will not only lower the price of our exports to the U.S., but will also stimulate domestic trade exports, which will both increase domestic employment and earn foreign exchange for the country, ultimately leading to continued positive economic growth in China in 2022, thus increasing the value of the RMB.
Therefore, I think that recently, the offshore RMB exchange rate rose 143 points in 2 days, deviating from 6.4000, mainly because our future inflation is not as serious as in Europe and the United States, as well as the rising optimism in the outlook for trade between China and the United States led to. In this regard, what do you think, is it consistent with the views of the editor?
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