[Data on the Market]
1. On Tuesday, 22 March, half-day turnover in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached $587.3 billion.
2. As of midday close, the Shanghai index closed up 0.14 per cent, the Shenzhen index fell 0.41 per cent and the GEM index fell 1.32 per cent.
3. A total of 2011 up and 2,471 down in both cities; 71 up and 1 down.
4, northbound funds, Shanghai Stock Exchange net buying 400 million in the morning, Shenzhen Stock Exchange net selling 504 million in the morning.
[Market Review]
Indices oscillated in early trading, with the Shanghai index turning red near midday, the Shanghai index closing up 0.14%, the Shenzhen index down 0.41% and the GEM index down 1.32%. Real estate, non-automotive transportation, pork, precious metals, oil and gas extraction, digital currency rose; new crown treatment, new crown testing and other sectors weakened. The two cities' stocks were down more than up. Half-day turnover of the two cities was nearly 600 billion, with net selling of 0.31 billion yuan by northbound funds.
On the plate, real estate led the two markets, special hair services (300917), Southland Land (002305), Everbright Garbo (600622), Sunshine City, Wantong Development (600246), Huaxia Happiness (600340), Shilianxing (002285) rose. Digital currency sector is pulling up, Cuimei shares (603123) stopped, Hengbao shares (002104), Chutian Long (003040), Royal Yin shares (002177) rose. Pork stocks shockingly strong, Jingji Zhinong (000048), Tang Renshin (002567), Tianbang shares (002124), superstar farming (603477) rose more than 5%. Hydrogen energy concept stocks pulled up during the day, Beijing City shares (600860) pulled up to seal the board, snowman shares (002639), to far new energy (300985), thick Pu shares, Meijin energy (000723) and so on to follow. New crown drug concept sharply lower, Haichen Pharmaceutical (300584) fell nearly 11%, Ya Ben Chemical (300261), Shu Tai Shen (300204), Sen Xuan medicine fell more than 7%.
[Market Hotspot]
1. Real estate
On March 22, the real estate sector set off a wave of stops, more than a dozen stocks such as Everbright Garbo, Shilian, Sunshine City, Huaxia Happiness, etc. stopped, Kakai City (000918), CCCC Real Estate (000736), etc. jumped more than 7%. Property ETF rose 1.28%, once up 1.92% during the day; turnover of more than 108 million. As of March 21, the fund received 3 consecutive days of net inflows.
In news, although the quoted interest rate (LPR) in the loan market did not drop in March, the home mortgage loan market in many places has shown signs of easing to varying degrees.Since March, many places have been adjusting their real estate credit policies, including lowering the down payment ratio for the first and second suites, raising the maximum CPF loan amount and lowering mortgage rates.
On March 16, the Financial Stability Development Committee of the State Council held a special meeting on real estate enterprises, which pointed out the need to promptly study and propose a strong and effective response plan to prevent and resolve risks, and propose supporting measures for the transition to a new development model.
Vice Premier Liu He and five departments on the real estate industry statement, the Bureau of Statistics released the first February industry data, many places to complete the first round of land auction, etc.: 1) Vice Premier Liu He and five departments on the real estate industry statement: March 16, Vice Premier Liu He presided over the State Council Financial Stability Development Committee, on the issue of the real estate industry, proposed to timely study and put forward a strong and effective prevention and mitigation of risk response program, proposed to the new development supporting measures for the transformation of the model. After the meeting, the CBRC, the SFC, the Ministry of Finance, the Foreign Exchange Bureau and the Central Bank 5 departments on the real estate industry have made relevant statements and policy elaboration; 2) the Bureau of Statistics announced industry data for the first two months: real estate development investment grew by 3.7% year-on-year in the first two months, and the growth rate continued its downward trend. Meanwhile, the area of residential new construction fell 14.9% and the area completed fell 9.6%. Residential sales area fell 13.8%, while sales dropped 22.1%. (For more details, please refer to the outgoing report "Investment grew slightly, the rest of the data is still sluggish _ National Bureau of Statistics first February real estate industry data review"); 3) many places to complete the first round of land auction: Hefei, Fuzhou, Qingdao and other places to complete the first round of land auction, the rate of abortion fell significantly, but the hot and cold differentiation is still significant, the main force of land acquisition is still state-owned enterprises central enterprises. In addition, the first batch of centralized land supply in Dongguan was officially listed, and the price limit for new houses was cancelled and the bidding deposit was lowered.
2. Digital currency
March 22, digital currency concept opened strong, Hailian Jinhui (002537) stopped, Chutian Long once rose nearly 7%, Hengbao shares, Royal Silver followed sharply. News, Chutian Long 138 million shares of restricted shares will be listed for circulation on March 24, yesterday Chutian Long was added to the position of land stock pass, the largest increase in the ring for A shares, 118.61%.
The ETF is a market-leading ETF with an amplitude of over 2% and a turnover of over 14 million yuan.
According to the Central Bank on the 18th, the Central Bank, the CBIRC, the SEC, the Foreign Exchange Bureau and the Zhejiang Provincial People's Government issued opinions on financial support for the high-quality development of Zhejiang to build a model zone of common prosperity. The opinions proposed to promote the unified mobile payment APP of the banking industry, bank APP and other types of mobile payment products of high quality and synergistic development; promote the integration of resources of government departments and joint efforts to build mobile payment convenience scenarios. Support eligible banks and non-bank payment institutions in Zhejiang to provide domestic mobile payment services for individuals outside the country. Support eligible areas to carry out digital RMB pilots.
According to a new research report by Ping An Securities, digital RMB is expected to build a new payment system, and it is recommended to grasp digital RMB investment opportunities from both hardware equipment and software system.
Ping An Securities Research Note: China's digital RMB has recently gained speed in piloting and still has great room for penetration increase. Under the premise of centralized management by the central bank, commercial banks and related institutions are jointly promoting the application pilot.
Companies such as Jingdong and Meituan lead the internet industry in digital RMB adoption, mainly due to strong willingness to promote, rich spending scenarios, and large incentives for discounts. By the end of 2021, over 1 million users have used digital RMB at Jingdong, with a cumulative spending amount of over RMB 200 million. In terms of consumption scenarios, Jingdong and Meituan both have rich e-commerce and local life application scenarios.
In terms of incentives, in addition to traditional offset coupons, Jingdong became the first company to use digital RMB to pay salaries, and Meituan launched a digital RMB low-carbon ride. The digital RMB is currently in the early stages of development, with both opportunities and challenges. Hardware manufacturers may benefit from the market opportunities brought by the digital RMB "hard wallet".
A key feature of the digital RMB is that it supports mobile NFC, bracelet wearable devices and other hardware to complete payments. As the acceptance of related "hard wallets" increases, related digital RMB hardware developers will have the opportunity to obtain more related orders and boost their performance. Software vendors may benefit from the business growth brought by the upgrade of the financial system. With the popularity of digital renminbi, financial institutions will need to upgrade their software systems, which may bring huge demand for system upgrades for relevant software vendors.
[Institutional view]
Huatai Securities: LPR not lowered, stable expectations need to be increased
March LPR cut expectations fall short again. Today (March 21) at 9:15 pm, the central bank announced to keep the 1-year and 5-year+ LPR unchanged at 3.7% and 4.6% in March. Previously, the central bank cut the 1-year LPR by 5 and 10 basis points for two consecutive months in December last year and January this year, and cut the 5-year+ LPR by 5 basis points in January this year. However, LPR quotes have remained unchanged for two consecutive months since February this year, and market expectations for a cut have continued to fall short.
We reiterate that even if it is mainly just signaling, a lower LPR is more conducive to stabilizing expectations, especially since the market has some expectations for a lower LPR after the March 16 Golden Stability Board meeting.
Beyond the interest rate cut, how can we observe the subsequent progress in stabilizing growth and expectations?
(1) One of the most important things to watch in the near term is the real estate-related policy adjustments.
(2) Whether epidemic prevention and control will be effective soon, or whether there will be a timely and orderly shift to a less economically impactful and more sustainable framework, has also been a recent focus.
(3) Whether the fiscal boosts infrastructure and, more importantly, whether the implementation of massive tax cuts remains a 2Q observation point.
(4) If not to cut interest rates to send signals, other monetary policy channels to stabilize growth policies or need to significantly increase, especially the expansion of base money, otherwise credit is not stable from.
Donghai Securities: 1.5 trillion retained tax rebate policy arrangement, forming a substantial benefit to enterprises
The State Council executive meeting deployed comprehensive measures to stabilize market expectations and maintain the stable and healthy development of the capital market.
The meeting determined the policy arrangements for implementing the 1.5 trillion yuan VAT retention tax rebate. It was mentioned that, firstly, nearly 1 trillion yuan of tax refunds will be given to small and micro enterprises in all industries and individual entrepreneurs who pay taxes under the general taxation method. Secondly, it is for the stock of retained tax credits for enterprises in six industries, including manufacturing. Third, the central government will arrange 1.2 trillion yuan of transfer funds to protect people's livelihood on top of the 50% tax rebate funds to be borne under the current tax system. Overall, this regular meeting of the State Council deployed comprehensive measures to stabilize market expectations and determined the policy arrangement of implementing 1.5 trillion yuan of VAT retained tax credit refunds. According to the Chinese government website, in 2020, China will add more than 2.5 trillion yuan in tax cuts and fees for the whole year; in 2021, about 1.1 trillion yuan in tax cuts and fees for the whole year, and in 2022, about 1 trillion yuan in tax cuts and refunds are expected, together with 1.5 trillion yuan in retained tax credits and refunds, the total of the two is about 2.5 trillion yuan, which constitutes a substantial benefit for real enterprises and helps stabilize the macro economy in general.
