Market Trends Morning Report
Tough sanctions around the Russia-Ukraine war are expected to intensify further as U.S. President Joe Biden travels to Europe to begin the G-7 meeting. Tensions in the foreign exchange market climbed again as the dollar surged higher again to close at 98.8 points, up 0.17%. The euro fell back to the bottom, closing at 1.0998 points, down -0.1%. USD/JPY continued to surge higher to 122.45 points, closing at 122.36 points, up 1.01%. USD/CAD fell to 1.2526 pips, down -0.3%. GBP/USD retreated down to 1.3183 pips, down -0.18%. AUD/USD bottomed out and rallied to break through 0.75 pips of integer resistance, closing at 0.7512 pips, up 0.18%. The USD/CNY offshore exchange rate surged higher and retreated to close at 6.3830 points, down -0.09%. The overall trend of the foreign exchange market, the safe-haven currency dollar and yuan shock upward, non-US currencies Australian dollar continued to rise, the euro and the pound fell back by setbacks, the yen continued to open high in the middle of the rush.
The factors that pose an impact on the foreign exchange market are the following
1, the U.S. quarterly initial jobless claims for the week of March 19 released on Thursday was 187,000, lower than market expectations of 210,000 and the previous value of 214,000; renewed jobless claims were 1.35 million, lower than market expectations of 1.403 million and the previous value of 1.419 million. The U.S. current account for the fourth quarter was -$217.9 billion, slightly lower than market expectations of $218 billion. U.S. March Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value of 58.5%, higher than market expectations of 56.6% and the previous value of 57.3%. U.S. data across the board blossomed higher in favor of the rally in the U.S. dollar index, to the detriment of non-U.S. currencies and precious metals.
2, the eurozone March Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value of 57%, higher than market expectations of 56% performance, Germany the data for 57.6, higher than market expectations of 56 performance; France the data for 54.8%, lower than market expectations of 55.1%. These data in addition to France's unsatisfactory the rest of the data are better than expected, constituting a stronger support for the euro's trend.
3, local time on Thursday, during Biden's trip to Europe, White House officials disclosed the latest round of sanctions against Russia list. In addition to the inclusion of hundreds of individuals and entities on the list, the U.S. and its allies have further explicitly restricted Russia's ability to access its foreign gold reserves. The sanctions this time list the entire Russian State Duma as a target, while 328 State Duma deputies have also been added to the sanctions list. The U.S. will now seek to conclude projects with allies for oil and gas cooperation. This sanctions decision and Biden's trip to Europe will raise market tensions a lot and pose a stronger impact on the currency market.
4. A joint statement issued after the G-7 summit at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, warned Russia against the use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons in the course of special military operations. The G-7 called on other governments to impose restrictive measures on Russia and to avoid circumventing sanctions. On energy, the G-7 called on oil and gas producing countries to increase supplies to international markets.
For the current trend of the foreign exchange market and the analysis of the influencing factors, BRIC's view is that the market's focus is temporarily moved from the Federal Reserve officials' speeches to Europe. With the new round of G7 sanctions against Russia, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue to intensify, posing a stronger impact on the foreign exchange market. The dollar rushed higher to maintain the trend of continued rebound upward, the dollar exchange rate continues to strengthen is our long-term judgment, need to pay attention to the non-US currency Australian dollar and the yen continuous big rise in the risk of chasing high.
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