If the U.S. really start to sanction China, then the capital will run faster, the RMB exchange rate will depreciate rapidly, foreign exchange reserves will be reduced very quickly, the bank is bound to tighten, while with the depreciation of the exchange rate stocks and bonds will be seriously affected. This is not the general sense of economic reasoning, this is a special case of economic change. Since the Putin thing happened, I think anything is possible. There are too many things that don't go by the book these days.
I would like to say that capital is profit-seeking, and when the short side does its best, the long side will slowly recover. Now the Hang Seng Index among the technology stocks have been greatly below the valuation, the future probability of foreign capital to kill a shot back to collect these cheap chips, backhand to do more, this is called sheep shearing, as the saying goes, things will be reversed, the negative will come, the short and long conversion in a flash. So you do not need to be overly pessimistic about the stock market, but now may be the best opportunity. Of course, I am still slightly pessimistic about Chinese stocks in the United States, because the sword of delisting is basically insoluble, unless China agrees to release corporate data.
For example, today's reverse repo 10 billion, recovered 10 billion, overnight borrowing rate 2.04%, funds are still in tight balance, institutions can come up with so much money to pull the big market is not easy. Interestingly, the central bank did not issue more reverse repo today, leaving the funds in a tight balance, making people reminisce ah.
By the way the downgrade, in fact, is also the release of funds, so that the market easing, the flight of dollars will accelerate, so the downgrade must be in the market capital very tight situation will only come out, to be in the land are dry up the skin of the situation out, played the role of thirst relief rather than the role of stagnant water, the general situation is not out.
In general, today's stock market rose sharply in order to stay away from the three thousand points of this financing closeout and fund redemptions dangerous area, which is the performance of financial stability, but with the stock market every day to issue new shares, issue convertible bonds, registration system. I'm not saying that tomorrow or this week will fall, tomorrow and the next day may continue to rise, but the overall trend is that the amount of money in the stock market is gradually decreasing, northbound money is the only variable. It has been to quench a thirst at the time of the downgrade, and then the amount of funds again slowly fall, so the cycle of more than a year. The future funds will basically be in tight balance, the easing environment will gradually away. If you start tapering in May or June, that is the real tightening to the dark moment.