Science

Typhoon Siampa No.3 may make landfall in Guangdong!

People think wrong! Many people may say that global warming is causing an increase in tropical cyclones, but what about the facts? No, the overall number of tropical cyclones forming globally each year is decreasing, what's going on?

This is from a study published by NOAA in the United States, which has been published in Nature Climate Change.

Typhoon Siampa No.3 may make landfall in Guangdong!

According to the study, the number of tropical cyclones formed globally has decreased by about 13% per year in the 20th century through the change in the number of tropical cyclones on global and regional scales since 1850, and the reason behind this is the "intensification" of global warming.

Therefore, the development of tropical cyclones due to global warming is not increasing, but is in the process of decreasing.

The first thing we need to understand is that global warming is continuing to develop and the trend of merging warming is increasing.

Typhoon Siampa No.3 may make landfall in Guangdong!

Based on the global average temperature in 2021, it is about 1.11(±0.13)°C above pre-industrial levels, however, based on the trend, there is a 93% chance that at least one of the next five years will be the hottest year on record.

So, the warming of the planet is already an obvious fact. There is nothing to indicate this.

As long as the warming continues to develop, then the impact on cyclones is also present. And this time this study illustrates that there was a 13% global annual decrease in the 20th century compared to the period between 1850 and 1900. For most ocean basins, the rate of decline has accelerated since the 1950s when warming was unprecedented. Why is this so?

Typhoon Siampa No.3 may make landfall in Guangdong!

That is, because human emissions of atmospheric pollutants have warmed the tropical oceans beyond industrial levels, and while such changes in sea surface temperature are expected to exacerbate storms, some related changes in atmospheric circulation in the tropics are thought to prevent the formation of storms.

If you use a common phrase, that is, "tropical storms are difficult to form, but the strength of the formation is very strong," is so simple. However, while the long-term global trend is declining, there is an increase in some areas, such as the North Atlantic basin, where the number of tropical cyclones or hurricanes has increased in recent decades.

Typhoon Siampa No.3 may make landfall in Guangdong!

So, global warming is affecting the development of storms, and this is what we are talking about climate change on the development of tropical cyclones. Of course, for our country, a new round of typhoon changes are coming, and whether they increase or decrease will not affect the next typhoon changes in any way.

Typhoon Siampa has been generated in the Northwest Pacific! The typhoon embryo according to the climate center's data, the strongest will reach 11 status, after, is expected to land in China's Guangdong region, this typhoon is also equivalent to the "South China Sea earth typhoon", mainly affecting China's South China, in close proximity to China's South China, strong "typhoon rain "will affect many places in China.

Typhoon Siampa No.3 may make landfall in Guangdong!

According to the data, in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan and other places, there will be a wide range of heavy rain, there are local heavy rain, and even very heavy rainfall appeared.

For Guangdong, this may be a "pain point", only to experience the overload of rainfall, did not expect the "typhoon storm" and come so fierce. In the "dragon boat water" time, the Pearl River basin in a month's time, there were 7 times heavy rainfall, the cumulative surface rainfall of 478 mm, nearly 70% more than the same period in normal years, the most since the complete data in 1961.

Affected by the high overlap of the storm area, the West River, Beijiang, Hanjiang three major rivers and Liujiang, Guijiang, Yujiang and other major rivers, a total of 227 rivers over the alarm.

Typhoon Siampa No.3 may make landfall in Guangdong!

So it's another critical period for our friends in Guangdong to prevent the development of rainfall. Although the strength of Typhoon Siampa No. 3 is not very strong, but from the wind and cloud satellite images can also see that the typhoon's circulation is very strong, carrying "rain" is bound to be very large.

So, one needs to be vigilant. And in addition to this typhoon, we also need to pay attention to the new typhoon embryo 98W, which also appears to have strengthened, with wind speed having reached 20KT, equivalent to 10m/s, and a central pressure value of 1007hpa.

Typhoon Siampa No.3 may make landfall in Guangdong!

And from the trend, the typhoon embryo will also become this year's No. 4 Typhoon Avery, the GFS is expected to have reached 1000hpa pressure value, but because the wind speed has not been reached, so the Japan Meteorological Agency has not yet given a name.

However, simulation data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that the typhoon will have to wait. And the European Numerical Center (EC) is also expected to develop only in early July. So, Typhoon Avery #4 may also be generated.

Typhoon Siampa No.3 may make landfall in Guangdong!

And after it emerges, it will go all the way north. The intensity will not be too big, but there is a probability of forming a "double typhoon" dance. At the same time, if the airflow is driven too much, it may form a chain effect of typhoons.

The northward movement affects the transport of water vapor. According to the trend, this 98W typhoon embryo, even if it turns out to be this year's No. 4 typhoon of Avery, will not make landfall in China, but keep moving northward, probably in the Yellow Sea or East China Sea region, passing to Japan or South Korea.

Typhoon Siampa No.3 may make landfall in Guangdong!

However, it is also possible that it will not turn. And the GFS gives a figure that there is a possibility of landing in the northeast of China, which is rather odd. This will look like a fairly low possibility, so we'll take it as a reference. This is the development of the new typhoon embryo 98W. So, a double typhoon dance may be coming, so everyone should be prepared.

Overall, the seasonal extremes are getting more complex and we may see more extreme typhoons in the future. Although from the existing situation, these two typhoons can only be described as "generalized" and may not have that much impact.

Typhoon Siampa No.3 may make landfall in Guangdong!

But we must remember that this year's active typhoon period is only in its infancy, and, every year, the "autumn typhoon" is the most powerful.

The number of typhoons expected to be generated in the northwest Pacific and the South China Sea in the summer is 7 to 10, less than normal, the number of typhoons landing in China is 4 to 5, close to the normal year. And this year's No. 3 Typhoon Siampa will be the first typhoon to land in China this year, and locked in Guangdong, get ready for the typhoon.